NateRich.net Docs Lab Tools

Expected Value

Expected value is the average value of one ticket over many identical rounds. It is not a promise about one draw.

Per-ticket EV

Let n be tickets sold, p the ticket price, d donations, and f = 0.01 the ticket fee. Ticket revenue enters the prize pool after the fee; donations enter the prize pool directly.

poolP = n * p * (1 - f) + d
EV per ticketEV = P / n
edge(EV - p) / p

Without donations, the 1% fee makes EV slightly below ticket price. Donations can cover that fee and push the round positive-EV.

EVL

A round is positive-EV when donations more than offset the 1% ticket fee. In the UI, that is the condition behind the EVL marker. The credential is a record that the wallet participated in a positive-EV round; it is not a return guarantee.

Variance

The tiers make individual outcomes noisy. A Grand prize ticket can pay far more than a Second decile ticket, and most tickets still lose. EV tells you the average value across many independent draws, not what one ticket will do today.

Try it

The Math & Simulator page lets you change ticket count, ticket price, donations, and your ticket holdings to see EV, odds, and tier payouts update live.